Study: Sell DISHTV when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Sell DISHTV when near 200 SMA and below 200 SMA" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: sell DISHTV at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. buy after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
122553.37157846.675800.3713580.25-2256.15-7234.282.572.250.0961503.56
245449.821510566.678399.4817835.26-7709-16360.61.092.180.13029.99
3547541510566.679206.1914703.88-7461.59-15025.041.232.470.133650.27
463171.731510566.6710214.8122600.41-7795.28-17584.861.312.620.134211.45
561865.531510566.6711978.8127637.85-11584.51-14579.861.032.070.0984124.37
655735.461510566.6711715.6335175.88-12284.17-16181.230.951.910.0793715.7
794997.471510566.6714820.5533492.17-10641.61-19143.021.392.790.136333.16
81368301510566.6717671.4328643.22-7976.78-13022.112.224.430.29122.03
91560221511473.3317545.9335806.67-9245.77-11056.511.95.220.2210401.48
1014709815966020848.0534842.25-6755.72-12370.013.094.630.29806.54

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 9 trading days. Profit factor is 5.22. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 73.33%, which is good. Average return per trade is 5.2%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
DISHTV Performance, X=9, Profit Factor:5.22

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016708 Jan 2016 (15.08%), 12 May 2016 (10.28%), 24 Jun 2016 (-4.8%), 16 Aug 2016 (-4.38%), 29 Sep 2016 (-3.78%), 08 Nov 2016 (3.91%), 01 Dec 2016 (5.13%)
2015111 Dec 2015 (0.71%)
2014203 Jan 2014 (11.37%), 31 Mar 2014 (6.91%)
2011109 Nov 2011 (17.9%)
2010302 Feb 2010 (0.24%), 16 Feb 2010 (9.46%), 07 Jun 2010 (-5.53%)
2008129 Jan 2008 (15.5%)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
atrnil25.931528801410471.4318648.2741459.72-8400.7-9731.552.225.550.2510919.99
nilnil-191560221511473.3317545.9335806.67-9245.77-11056.511.95.220.2210401.48
atrnil317.85140049137653.8527714.362189.58-8991.91-13319.553.083.60.1610772.97
atrtrail34.9376741.82158753.3314400.8825765.18-5495.04-9731.552.6230.135116.12
atrtrail-17.467926.34157846.6716004.9734513.62-5513.56-9731.552.92.540.14528.42
atrtrail24.2758362.23158753.3312103.4421149.64-5495.04-9731.552.22.520.123890.82
200trail-1341124.11207133511320.8829626.96-2932.47-3922.983.862.080.0722056.21
200trail31.5732359.392181338.18937.2111275.52-3010.64-3922.982.971.830.0831540.92
200nil31.5729447.142181338.18937.2111275.52-3234.65-3922.982.761.70.0741402.24
200nil21.2916845.062191242.866128.017517.01-3192.25-3922.981.921.440.055802.15
200trail21.2916845.062191242.866128.017517.01-3192.25-3922.981.921.440.055802.15

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 5.55. Strategy is very good and impressively bearish. Percentage of profitable trades is 71.43%, which is good. Average return per trade is 5.46%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades using the best exit criterion.
DISHTV Performance, Profit Factor:5.55

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2016708 Jan 2016 (6.23%), 12 May 2016 (6.45%), 24 Jun 2016 (-3.73%), 16 Aug 2016 (-4.87%), 29 Sep 2016 (-4.1%), 08 Nov 2016 (8.59%), 01 Dec 2016 (9.47%)
2015111 Dec 2015 (5.79%)
2014203 Jan 2014 (7.8%), 31 Mar 2014 (7.38%)
2011109 Nov 2011 (7.48%)
2010202 Feb 2010 (13.32%), 07 Jun 2010 (-4.11%)
2008129 Jan 2008 (20.73%)



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