Study: Buy PAGEIND when above 200 SMA and makes a 20 day low today

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In this study, we evaluate the performance of strategy "Buy PAGEIND when above 200 SMA and makes a 20 day low today" under various conditions.

X Analysis

In the table below, we find out the performance of this trading strategy under following scenario: buy PAGEIND at the closing price whenever the signal triggers (Rs. 2Lac per trade). Then cover the position "X" trading days later at close_price i.e. sell after "X" trading days. Here are the results of this study:

X DaysNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
111604.68137653.853193.317068.77-1791.42-3667.591.782.080.1892.67
228018.35138561.546091.078823.76-4142.04-6592.931.472.350.132155.26
339502.71138561.548456.7418173.09-5630.23-10740.791.52.40.123038.67
467169.23138561.5411312.1926616.77-4665.67-7472.432.423.880.185166.86
594772.22139469.2313278.1522387.18-6182.78-8767.592.154.830.237290.17
690553.921310376.9211511.8128336.49-8188.06-10923.061.414.690.216965.69
798541.991310376.9211465.0519596.86-5369.5-11076.732.147.120.297580.15
81195391311284.6212098.8622071.02-6774.33-9762.661.799.820.359195.29
91186111310376.9212926.1322907.87-3550.13-8786.633.6412.140.359123.91
101117531311284.6211664.3120855.77-8277.02-11371.911.417.750.318596.41

From the table above, we see that best results are achieved by holding positions for 9 trading days. Profit factor is 12.14. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 76.92%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 4.56%, which is very good.
In the chart below, we plot cumulative trade gain versus trades. This chart is important and informative as it shows the performance of strategy over time.
PAGEIND Performance, X=9, Profit Factor:12.1

Yearwise Summary of trades in above chart

YearNumber of TradesTrade Dates
2015417 Apr 2015 (+), 12 Jun 2015 (+), 29 Jul 2015 (+), 24 Aug 2015 (+)
2014307 Apr 2014 (+), 26 May 2014 (+), 20 Aug 2014 (-)
2013205 Feb 2013 (-), 20 Aug 2013 (-)
2011404 Feb 2011 (+), 02 May 2011 (+), 04 Oct 2011 (+), 20 Dec 2011 (+)

Strategy Analysis - Exit Criteria

In the study above, exit criterion was that hold the position for "X" trading days. That's one possible exit criterion. However, we can have more elaborate exit criteria. Now we study this strategy under other exit criteria. There are 3 things which you must get to know before proceeding further. Table below shows the performance of this strategy under various exit combinations. Note that nil,nil,-1 is a special exit combination where we just take the best result of "X" Analysis study above.

Stop LossAdjust Stop LossTargetAvg Holding PeriodNet ProfitTotal TradesWinning TradesLosing Trades% ProfitableAvg Winning TradeMax Winning TradeAvg Losing TradeMax Losing TradeWin/Loss RatioProfit FactorSharpe RatioAvg Trade
nilnil-191186111310376.9212926.1322907.87-3550.13-8786.633.6412.140.359123.91
atrnil27.111592291813572.2214948.6122500.63-7020.51-10783.572.135.540.288846.08
atrtrail37.061076061813572.2210939.4233750.95-6921.34-10783.571.584.110.185978.1
atrtrail25.1794122.581813572.229902.2522500.63-6921.34-10783.571.433.720.185229.03
atrnil314.69140070169756.2521621.233750.95-7788.64-10783.572.783.570.198754.4
atrtrail-17.6759991.591812666.678230.220149.12-6461.81-10783.571.272.550.123332.87

In the table above, row 1 shows the best exit criterion. Profit factor is 12.14. Strategy is very good and impressively bullish. Percentage of profitable trades is 76.92%, which is excellent. Average return per trade is 4.56%, which is very good.
Performance of strategy chart over time is same as above.

View performance of other stocks for this trading system.